“Published every two days - Digging up edges before they surfaceˮ | 27th June 2025

1. Quitting Time: Paul Looks to Retire Chavez Jr. — Again

"Jake Paul’s punching down the past, but can Julio’s pride outlast his gas tank?”

Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. goes down June 29, 12:00 AM UTC at Anaheim’s Honda Center. A big career referendum. Paul wants legacy legitimacy after flattening Tyson, while Chavez Jr. crawls back from the shadow realm of irrelevance, clinging to a once-golden surname. For one, it’s a climb. For the other, it might be the final spiral.

Lean & TL;DR

• Jake Paul by KO/TKO

• Confidence: 8.5/10

• Units: 1.5

• Bet Slip: Paul via KO/TKO (-150)

• Betting on Chavez Jr.’s willpower is like betting on a Tinder date to show up sober, quite possible, but hilariously unlikely.
  

Jake Paul is definitely exorcising legacies now. After Mike Tyson, he's the disgraced heir of Mexican boxing royalty. Chavez Jr. walks into this fight with the ghost of his father in his corner, three years of ring rust on his boots, and Paul even taunting his sobriety like it's a press tour drinking game. Add the mental minefield of failed expectations and public ridicule, and we’re either watching a miracle, or a methodical execution.

Paul is in his athletic prime (28), with a 3" reach advantage and zero signs of physical decline. Meanwhile, Chavez Jr. has fought once in 3.5 years, looked washed in that undercard, and got son’d by Anderson Silva, a man Paul comfortably handled. His 3-2 record since 2020 is less a redemption arc and more a red flag parade. The most consistent stat? Chavez Jr. quits under pressure. Repeatedly.

At -700, the books aren’t being coy. There’s no sharp steam on the dog, no whispers of gym wars or late-life resurrection. Public sentiment mocks Chavez Jr., but props suggest Vegas sees a stoppage coming (-150 Paul KO). The trap? Emotional bettors thinking Chavez Jr.’s dad in the corner = new fire in the belly. Reality: it’s more likely to be a funeral dirge than a war cry.

2. Choke Artist or KO Surgeon? Topuria Faces the Lion in Oliveira

"The mat is lava, the stakes are gold, and one of them’s leaving without their consciousness.”

UFC 317’s main event features Ilia Topuria (16-0) vs. Charles Oliveira (35-10-1) for the vacant lightweight title, live from Las Vegas on June 29, 2:00 AM UTC. Topuria, a ruthless technician on a tear, wants to add a second division to his belt collection. But in his way? “Do Bronx,” a submission artist with more finishes than some entire divisions combined. Legacy, belts, and egos are all on the chopping block.

Lean & TL;DR

• Fight doesn’t go the distance

• Confidence: 9/10

• Units: 2u

• Bet Slip: Under 2.5 rounds (-130), sprinkle Oliveira by Sub (+500)

• Someone’s going out cold or tapping by the third espresso, book it.
  

Oliveira fights like he owes the devil money. This time, he’s fighting for his newborn son, and if history’s any guide (just ask Dariush), that kind of dad-energy means trouble. But across the cage is Topuria: undefeated, surgical, and unfazed. He’s treating this like just another victim, real dangerous, considering Oliveira’s made a career of punishing cocky favorites who press too fast, too early.

Topuria’s striking accuracy (54%) and 93% takedown defense make him a nightmare for grapplers. But Oliveira’s resume? Ridiculous: 16 subs, 20 UFC finishes, and a tendency to rise when doubt floods the room. Still, 3 of his last 4 losses came by early KO, Topuria's favorite time to clock out souls.

Topuria opened at a juicy -440 and got steamed early—78% of bettors love his clean record and highlight reel. Props are sharp: Topuria KO (-150), but Oliveira by sub is holding value at +500. Max Holloway’s quote should echo out loud: “This is decided in the first few minutes.” Add in referee Marc Goddard’s quick stand-up tendencies, and Oliveira’s mat advantage could be nerfed, forcing a brawl he might not survive.

1. WNBA: Indiana Fever vs Dallas Wings (June 28, 11:30 PM UTC)

• Sharp Move: The line opened with Indiana as a -7.5 favorite but has crashed to as low as -3.5/-4 at some books, largely due to Caitlin Clark (groin) being ruled out and Indiana playing the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas. Dallas is also missing key rotation players (Carrington, Geiselsoder, Harris, McCowan, Siegrist), but the market has reacted more to Clark’s absence and Indiana’s fatigue.

• Sleeper Stat: Despite Dallas’ ugly 4-12 record, the Wings are 3-1 ATS in their last four and have covered 60% of the time in the last five head-to-head meetings with Indiana. Indiana, meanwhile, is just 3-4 ATS on the road this season and has failed to cover in three of their last four.

• Hidden Venue Nugget: This game is being played at the NBA’s American Airlines Center (not the Wings’ usual smaller venue), and it’s a sellout, quite rare for a regular-season WNBA game. The larger, rowdier crowd could boost Dallas’ energy, especially with Paige Bueckers facing fellow top pick Kelsey Mitchell in a marquee rookie showdown.
  

2. AFL: Collingwood Football Club vs West Coast Eagles (June 28, 9:35 AM UTC)

• Sharp Move: West Coast’s injury uncertainty around key midfielders Tom Cole and Harry Edwards has seen the Eagles’ line drift slightly (+22.5 to +25) as bettors hedge against a potentially weakened lineup. Meanwhile, Collingwood’s Brayden Maynard remains out with a plantar fascia rupture, limiting their defensive rotations and impacting line movement on the Pies' side.

• Sleeper Stat: Collingwood is 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Marvel Stadium, but against West Coast specifically, the Eagles have covered 60% of their last five visits despite being underdogs. This suggests West Coast’s value as a dog in this matchup is often overlooked by the public.

• Hidden Factor - Travel & Fatigue: West Coast Eagles have been managing a grueling travel schedule with multiple long-haul trips this season, and their young star Tyrell Dewar’s limited training this week hints at possible load management or minor injury. The Eagles’ squad depth will be tested, especially if Tom Cole and Harry Edwards are sidelined, potentially giving Collingwood a physical edge in the midfield battle.

3. F1: Austrian Grand Prix (June 29, 1:00 PM UTC)

• Sharp Move: Oscar Piastri remains the favorite at around 7/4 after dominating the season with five wins, but Max Verstappen’s odds have shortened slightly (from 11/4 to about 7/2) following Red Bull’s home race hype and his history of four wins here. Meanwhile, Ferrari’s major upgrade package is focused on floor and rear suspension tweaks, stirring action on Charles Leclerc (+16/1), as bettors bet on a potential podium shakeup (can it be for real this time?).

• Sleeper Stat: George Russell is quietly 3-1 ATS in his last four runs at the Red Bull Ring and won last year’s Austrian GP, yet sits at long-shot odds (+800). Combine that with recent Mercedes upgrades and strong form, and he’s a legit dark horse for podium or even upset win value. Here's a kicker; Russell just shook the F1 paddock by confirming Mercedes is in talks with Max Verstappen about a potential future seat. While his own contract remains unsigned, Russell said he’s focused on performance, not politics, despite the clear pressure.

• Weather Watch: Cooler track temperatures expected this weekend favor Mercedes’ recent upgrades and tire management, which could disrupt Red Bull’s usual dominance in hot conditions. This subtle shift in climate often leads to unexpected tire wear patterns, making race strategy and pit timing a bigger factor than usual.

  

  Photo Source / This is Formula 1 on Facebook

Women’s International Friendly: Spain vs Japan (June 27, 7:00 PM UTC): Spain vs. Japan has evolved into a sneaky-good rivalry since 2017. While Spain edges the win column, Japan owns the mind games, famously shredding Spain 4-0 at the 2023 World Cup with just 23% possession, the lowest ever for a major-tourney win. It’s not about holding the ball, it’s about what you do with it. Japan’s surgical counters and three shutouts in recent clashes suggest a quiet, psychological stranglehold.

Boxing:  Christian Mbilli Assomo vs Maciej Sulecki (June 27, 11:00 PM UTC): Mbilli’s under-the-radar surge meets Sulecki’s gritty vet game in a classic youth vs. experience showdown. Sulecki’s last three fights all went the distance despite his pop—maybe strategy, maybe rust, while Mbilli’s knockout streak screams “let me in, big leagues.” Here’s a bonus; Sulecki’s camp has been dealing with behind-the-scenes contract drama, which could be the edge Mbilli needs.

UFC:  Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price (June 28, 10:30 PM UTC): Jacobe Smith enters as a 25-to-1 favorite, and it’s not just hype. His 73-second KO earlier this year turned heads, pairing knockout power with a legit wrestling base. Price brings experience but also inconsistency, a shaky chin, and rumored contract distractions. With his brawler style and habit of eating bombs early, this has “highlight reel or heartbreak” written all over it.

@cobhale: “I have few doubts this isn’t the right direction" (Charles Leclerc on an interview). welcome back Ferrari mid season flop upgrades?
Hobbit’s Take: This is either optimism lost in translation or the first sign the Scuderia’s cooking up another midseason meltdown. Either way, fade the upgrades—boost the popcorn.

@Wammyxo: I speak for EVERYONE when I say that WE watching Jake Paul vs Chavez Jr and not UFC this Saturday 🤣🤣💯💯
Hobbit’s Take: Bold of you to assume we can’t bet both, Wammy. Parlays don’t discriminate—just like Jake’s left hook.

@District22FC: The Indiana Fever lost the off-season. They slowed Caitlin down with low IQ AARP members. This is on the front office. 🕊️
Hobbit’s Take: When your rookie has more court vision than the execs in suits, you’re not rebuilding, you’re really just rerunning episodes of Survivor: Front Office Edition.

This Day in Sports History - Flash KO & Forgotten Glory: June 27’s Knockout Boxing History

On this day in 1988, Mike Tyson flattened Michael Spinks in just 91 seconds, still the fourth-fastest heavyweight title KO ever. Behind the scenes, trainer Kevin Rooney joked he’d bet their purses on a first-round finish… just to fire Tyson up. Mind games before the bell.